The 2025 Night Water Oscar Ballot results are in
Who will take home the top prize this year?
Welcome to the 2nd Night Water Academy Awards… Ballot Results!
Tonight is a celebration of copying predictions from better informed individuals and publications. It’s not about the power of the movies, it’s not about the best dressed stars, and it’s not about Adam Sandler saying “Chalamet” in the funniest way possible. It’s about winning free Day Soda at all costs.
Fair warning: there’s nothing else in this edition of Night Water, so if you do not care about the results of this competition whatsoever, please drag this email to the virtual trash can. Spend your evening watching this 18 minute deep dive into the 1997 Tamagotchi PC game instead. Or just skip down to the purple rectangles to read some of your fellow readers' best Oscars hot takes.
How I made my picks
Since the entire concept of the Night Water Oscar Ballot is predicated on the idea that I am a very successful Oscar Ballot Filler-Outer, it’s only fair that I be as transparent as possible with my sources. This year, I consulted predictions from Variety, the Los Angeles Times, AwardsDaily, The Ankler, Deadline, and Vulture. (I forgot to check the betting odds this year—these gambling companies should really run more advertising!) In pretty much every case this year, I went with the consensus favorite—though I’ll note categories where the predictions were murkier.
Did all that research pay off? Let’s find out.
And the Oscar goes to…
Key:
Winners in bold
My picks in italics
(Percentage of Night Water votes won)
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
A Complete Unknown (13%)
Conclave (41%)
Emilia Pérez (17%)
Nickel Boys (21%)
Sing Sing (8%)
All of my sources agreed on Conclave this year, with Variety and AwardsDaily noting that Nickel Boys could be a contender. These two films also happened to be the two most popular choices in the Night Water ballot—good job, folks.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Anora (33%)
The Brutalist (13%)
A Real Pain (13%)
September 5 (4%)
The Substance (37%)
Your prediction here likely depended on whether you thought Anora was going to dominate the night. Four of my six sources went with Anora here, and Variety listed it as a likely alternative to their prediction, A Real Pain.
Music (Original Score)
The Brutalist (38%)
Conclave (13%)
Emilia Pérez (0%)
Wicked (45%)
The Wild Robot (4%)
Y’all really liked Wicked, huh? Deadline was also hopeful for a Wicked win, though admitted it would likely be The Brutalist taking home the statue at the end of the night.
Music (Original Song)
“El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (29%)
“The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (8%)
“Like A Bird” from Sing Sing (17%)
“Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (21%)
“Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late (25%)
Let’s pretend this category didn’t happen.
Costume Design
A Complete Unknown (0%)
Conclave (5%)
Gladiator II (8%)
Nosferatu (8%)
Wicked (79%)
The closest to a “Free Space” on this year’s ballot—apologies to everyone who didn’t get the memo. Congratulations to Paul Tazewell for becoming the first Black man to win the Oscar for costume design!
Makeup and Hairstyling
A Different Man (13%)
Emilia Pérez (0%)
Nosferatu (21%)
The Substance (49%)
Wicked (17%)
A well-deserved win.
Production Design
The Brutalist (4%)
Conclave (13%)
Dune: Part Two (46%)
Nosferatu (8%)
Wicked (29%)
The first of many disappointments for the Dune-heads among the Night Water faithful.
Cinematography
The Brutalist (42%)
Dune: Part Two (46%)
Emilia Pérez (0%)
Maria (4%)
Nosferatu (8%)
The second. The Brutalist was the first feature film to be shot entirely in VistaVision since 1961’s One-Eyed Jacks, a choice that clearly captivated the Academy.
Directing
Sean Baker (46%)
Brady Corbet (21%)
James Mangold (8%)
Jacques Audiard (4%)
Colarie Fargeat (21%)
Similar to last year’s ballot, a good number of you predicted split Best Picture/Director tickets, an outcome that seemed at least a bit more likely this year with much hype behind Brady Corbet for The Brutalist. Alas—favorite Sean Baker took home the prize.
Film Editing
Anora (17%)
The Brutalist (25%)
Conclave (41%)
Emilia Peréz (0%)
Wicked (17%)
Conclave was the favorite in this category, though because the American Cinema Editors awards are happening after the Oscars this year, this was one of the harder categories to predict. Hats off to The Ankler, the only one of my sources to call it correctly: “Editors’ names aren’t listened, just the films, which means some voters might not realize that Sean Baker edited his own film, Anora.” If the Academy realized that, they may have been more reticent to hand him the prize.
Sound
A Complete Unknown (21%)
Dune: Part Two (58%)
Emilia Pérez (0%)
Wicked (17%)
The Wild Robot (4%)
Dune-heads rejoice…
Visual Effects
Alien: Romulus (0%)
Better Man (4%)
Dune: Part Two (75%)
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (4%)
Wicked (17%)
…for these two technical awards are all you’ll pick up for now. Maybe Dune Messiah will sweep the 99th Academy Awards.
Animated Short Film
Beautiful Men (29%)
In the Shadow of the Cypress (25%)
Magic Candies (8%)
Wander to Wonder (21%)
Yuck! (17%)
The short film categories are some of the hardest to predict, and they can make or break your Oscars ballot. My sources were split between Yuck! and Wander to Wonder, with Yuck! getting a slight edge. No matter—neither won.
Documentary Short Film
Death By Numbers (4%)
I Am Ready, Warden (13%)
Incident (17%)
Instruments of a Beating Heart (29%)
The Only Girl in the Orchestra (37%)
My sources were evenly split in a three-way tie between I Am Ready, Warden, Incident, and The Only Girl in the Orchestra, but I was convinced by Vulture’s argument that this relatively lighter fare—the subject of which “happens to be the daughter of two stars from the Golden Age of Hollywood”—would win over voters.
Live Action Short Film
A Lien (17%)
Anuja (17%)
I’m Not a Robot (24%)
The Last Ranger (17%)
The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent (25%)
My sources were all over the place here—Anuja, produced by Mindy Kaling, was the favorite by virtue of plurality.
Animated Feature Film
Flow (17%)
Inside Out 2 (17%)
Memoir of a Snail (8%)
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (17%)
The Wild Robot (41%)
The Wild Robot was the clear favorite here, having picked up nine prizes at the Annie Awards, but as the Los Angeles Times noted, the Academy’s international slant made Flow a dark horse for this award.
Documentary Feature Film
Black Box Diaries (4%)
No Other Land (33%)
Porcelain War (13%)
Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (25%)
Sugarcane (25%)
This appeared to be a toss-up between two war films, No Other Land, about a young Palestinian activist, and Porcelain War, about Ukrainian artists working while defending their country. Porcelain War felt like a safer bet, considering no one in America wants to talk about the ongoing genocide in Palestine—No Other Land hasn’t even found a U.S. distributor. One of the most interesting wins of the night.
International Feature Film
I’m Still Here (29%)
The Girl With the Needle (8%)
Emilia Pérez (38%)
The Seed of the Sacred Fig (21%)
Flow (4%)
While many feared Emilia Pérez would walk away with this one, the Brazilian I’m Still Here ultimately prevailed as we all sighed with relief.
Actor in a Leading Role
Adrien Brody (38%)
Timothée Chalamet (49%)
Colman Domingo (0%)
Ralph Fiennes (13%)
Sebastian Stan (0%)
Despite the support of Club Chalamet and many Night Water ballot filler-outers, the clear favorite Adrien Brody won his second Best Actor Oscar for The Brutalist, delivering a speech almost as long as the film. Sorry, one sec—what do you mean, a lot of people have already made that joke?
Actor in a Supporting Role
Yura Borisov (17%)
Kieran Culkin (54%)
Edward Norton (13%)
Guy Pearce (8%)
Jeremy Strong (8%)
Another clear favorite—2025 is a big year for stars of Home Alone 2: Lost in New York!
Actress in a Leading Role
Cynthia Erivo (8%)
Karla Sofía Garscón (21%)
Mikey Madison (4%)
Demi Moore (63%)
Fernanda Torres (4%)
In the biggest upset of the night, Mikey Madison won her first Oscar for Anora over frontrunner Demi Moore. The irony was not lost on anybody.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Monica Barbaro (4%)
Ariana Grande (21%)
Felicity Jones (8%)
Isabella Rossellini (17%)
Zoe Saldaña (50%)
Should we all just pretend she won this for Avatar: The Way of Water?
Best Picture
Anora (24%)
The Brutalist (8%)
A Complete Unknown (13%)
Conclave (17%)
Dune: Part Two (17%)
Emilia Pérez (4%)
I’m Still Here (0%)
Nickel Boys (0%)
The Substance (4%)
Wicked (13%)
There’s an alternate reality where, due to the way Best Picture votes are tabulated, Conclave could’ve walked away with the prize last night. Ah, well. With the Best Picture win, Sean Baker became only the second person in history to win four Oscars in a single night, tying the record set by Walt Disney in 1954.
And the complimentary Day Soda goes to…
Thanks to everyone who filled out an Oscar ballot this year. While you are a small percentage of the overall Night Water readership, I can confidently say that you’re my favorites for indulging me in this competition.
There were 23 participants this year—not including myself but including two ballots from the same individual, neither of which got them particularly close to winning. Better luck next year.
This year’s winners…
In third place, with a score of 12, Sami!
In second place, with a score of 16, Via!
In first place, both with a score of 17, Russell Sperberg and Kevin Reed!
Via and Russell were last year’s third place winners, and Kevin was last year’s second place winner—congratulations to you three for continuing your dominance.
I also scored 17/23 this year, two off my score from last year but enough to keep me on par with my readers.
For the curious: this year’s average score was 9/23.
Movies Fantasy League final update
The much less successful Night Water mini-league in Vulture’s annual Movies Fantasy League is now over. No position changes since the update from a few weeks ago. Final results are as follows: Milkshake brings up the rear with 1328 points, CheddarGoblin earned a respectable 1655 points, Via took home 2833 points, and I won the mini-league with 4162 points. Sounds good until you realize I’m still ranked 3181st overall.
